- Bitcoin’s price is trading around $81,525, up more than 5% over the past week, following a rebound from earlier weekly lows.
- On September 18, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs registered $433 million in net inflows, spearheaded by BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC.
- Alex Thorn of Galaxy states that historical data shows Bitcoin successfully recapturing its 50-week moving average typically signals that bear-market lows are complete.
On Sep. 21, Bitcoin rose past $81.5K, building upon a rebound that followed its first close above a vital long-term technical benchmark in 45 weeks.
At the time of writing, BTC exchanged hands near $81,525 after hitting an intraday peak close to $82,074. The leading cryptocurrency advanced nearly 6% over the week ending Sep. 20 and shows an increase of approximately 29% across the past 35 days, bouncing back from earlier monthly lows near the $75,000 threshold.
This upward momentum followed a solid recovery late last week, highlighted by $433 million in net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on Sep. 18. Fidelity’s FBTC paced these additions with roughly $310.7 million, trailed by BlackRock’s IBIT at about $108.4 million. Prior outflows meant that total weekly ETF inflows amounted to roughly $6.2 million despite the late-week surge.
Furthermore, the recent price action pushed Bitcoin back above its 50-week moving average. BTC settled the week above this technical indicator for the first time in 45 weeks, capturing close attention as a marker often monitored during major market turnarounds.
Bitcoin Reclaims Key Long-Term Technical Level
Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Research, highlighted the significance of the 50-week moving average throughout past Bitcoin bear cycles. In previous analysis, Thorn noted that in four out of five concluded bear markets, reclaiming the 50-week average signaled that the market bottom was officially reached.
Historical metrics help explain the focus surrounding the recent weekly close. Galaxy reviewed significant Bitcoin pullbacks dating back to 2011 and identified 13 instances where BTC crossed back over the 50-week average. In 11 of those scenarios, Bitcoin avoided setting a subsequent new low.
This recurring pattern surfaced following several steep downturns: Bitcoin recovered the average in 2012 subsequent to the 2011 crash, in 2015 after the 2014–15 bear market, in 2019 following the 2018 contraction, and again in 2023 on the heels of the 2022 market decline. While these recoveries generally preceded substantial rallies, the indicator has occasionally generated false signals, such as during the 2021–22 timeframe.
BTC Tests Key $82K Resistance
Presently, the 4-hour Bitcoin chart displays a bullish impulse accompanied by bullish consolidation. This follows a robust rebound from the $76,000–$77,000 band, leading into consolidation near recent highs.
Examining closer, BTC continues to hover above its 9-period moving average situated near $80,981 and its 21-period moving average around $80,373, sustaining a healthy short-term market structure.
Additionally, the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) registers near 70, reflecting strong momentum while bringing the asset close to standard overbought levels. Though not an automatic reversal indicator, this highlights that momentum has extended following the recent climb.
With the 50-week moving average currently resting in the high-$70,000s, Bitcoin maintains a buffer of several thousand dollars above that line following its latest weekly settlement. Sustaining this position will serve as a crucial test for the ongoing recovery in the weeks ahead.
Consequently, the immediate barrier sits around $82,000. Because Bitcoin has repeatedly tested this zone without securing a definitive breakout, it remains a primary resistance level for the current price action.
For downside protection, the $80,000 zone acts as the initial major support area, alongside the 21-period moving average near $80,373 which offers an additional short-term reference point.
This latest upward push for Bitcoin has unfolded amid macroeconomic and regulatory crosscurrents, which include the Federal Reserve’s interest rate determination and a legislative setback for the CLARITY Act in the Senate. BTC’s capacity to maintain values above $80,000 keeps market focus locked on whether the digital asset can mount another assault on the $82,000 region.
