- CryptoQuant founder expects 3–5x BTC returns this cycle instead of another 10x rally.
- A more mature market could lead to a less severe Bitcoin bear market.
Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, is pointing to a reality that many retail traders are reluctant to accept: the current Bitcoin bull run will likely yield 3–5x gains rather than a massive 10x surge, paving the way for a much softer bear market compared to past cycles.
During earlier eras when Bitcoin was a smaller asset class driven primarily by retail participants, speculative capital drove massive price spikes followed by brutal 80% collapses. The current market environment has evolved significantly. With expanding institutional involvement and a vastly larger market capitalization, the very mechanisms that limit massive upward surges are also cushioning the downside.
What the On-Chain Data Is Saying?
This exact shift is mirrored in the PnL Index—which measures overall holder profitability—showing tamer cycle peaks and troughs establishing themselves at higher levels of profitability than in past eras.
Additionally, the MVRV ratio managed to stay above 1 throughout this cycle. Even during market dips, Bitcoin prices remained higher than the average on-chain acquisition cost for holders. While individual investors certainly experienced losses, the aggregate holder base never slipped into negative territory.
At the same time, three distinct indicators are pointing toward the same outlook. Ongoing capital inflows are highlighted by the rising realized cap, early long-term whales have halted their sell-offs, and derivatives whales accumulated substantial long positions near market lows. Even the 365-day moving average of the PnL Index, which usually lags during market shifts, is currently showing a notable turning point.
This shift does not imply that Bitcoin’s growth is capped; rather, the fundamental market dynamic has evolved. Trading away the 10x parabolic spikes also removes the threat of an 80% crash, creating an environment that attracts patient, long-term investors rather than volatile speculative money.
Moreover, the concept of Bitcoin functioning as a genuine currency—stable enough for daily use and reliable enough to store value—once brushed aside as wishful thinking, might quietly be turning into truth. As Bitcoin develops the stability needed to act as real currency, digital-native wealth could transform the global landscape in ways that extend far beyond mere price speculation.
The Short-Term Trajectory
Bitcoin (BTC), the leading digital asset, currently exchanges hands around the $86,079 mark with a trading volume near $41.895 billion. Its intraday price moves between a low of $85,237 and a high of $87,251 over the past 24 hours, accompanied by a swift recovery from earlier lows that has reversed market sentiment to bullish.
At the same time, technical indicators from past cycles point to the possibility of a 30% pullback, signaling a prospective retracement. The projected path maps out an initial dip toward the $77K–$82K zone, continuing down through phased drops to $70K and $60K before potentially hitting a $54K target.
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